Global Leading Indicator

“March Advanced GLI – positive turn in acceleration after six months of slowing growth – locates cycle back in ‘Expansion’ phase – most supportive phase for risky assets. (i) Momentum increased to 0.22%mom from 0.20%mom last month. (ii) We have been expecting a turn back into ‘Expansion’, in particular as the negative weather impact on US data begins to fade. This process will likely provide a somewhat artificial boost to US indicators in the short term, which would lead us to treat the size of the latest jump in acceleration with some caution. But, overall, we expect the positive turn in the global cycle to last, and with growth levels 20bp below the highs from last August, we see room for further acceleration from here. We await the Final March reading with the full set of components for further confirmation.” (Goldman Sachs)


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