Global Leading Indicator

Upcoming or expected improvement in macro data.

“It is possible that GLI will return to Expansion as early as next month. According to our forecast, the most likely forward trajectory for the global cycle is a return to the Expansion phase. Macro data out of Europe remain fairly solid. And even the US data, while at the moment a source of weakness in the GLI, may already be showing some signs of stabilization. For example, February ISM improved relative to the January print, and personal income and consumer spending both bested expectations. If these trends continue and the weather-induced aberrations are rectified further, it is possible that the GLI will return to Expansion even as early as the next month.” (Goldman Sachs)

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