Payroll employment rose 148K in September vs consensus 180K. This was the third straight month that the report came in weaker than expected. We’ve seen three straight months of weaker than expected employment reports, but we have also seen that the change in NFP in the most recent report has been weaker than the change in the prior months. 3-month trend in payroll job growth now at +143K and 12-month trend at +185K.
And the only thing that really counts (Taper-off):
“Although September jobs report was not too far below consensus expectations, cumulative weakness over past three months has been large enough to push our expectations for Fed tapering into 2014. Our baseline is now a move at the March meeting, but there is significant uncertainty in both directions.” (Jan Hatzius, Goldman Sachs)