Consumer Confidence

“US consumer confidence has plunged since government shutdown. The daily Gallup consumer confidence index fell to minus 35 on Monday from levels around minus 15 a couple of weeks ago. The current levels are the lowest since December 2011, although well above the trough of -56 during the debt ceiling crisis of summer 2011. The Gallup index correlates closely with the monthly University of Michigan and Conference Board confidence measures.” (FT)

Consumer Confidence also correlates closely with retail sales. In most cases the two goes hand in hand. Unlike many other countries there is a large gap between US retail sales and consumer confidence (+ 70 percent of US GDP is personal consumption).

Adjusted Retail Sales vs Consumer Confidence (Bloomberg charts not fully updated):

Adjusted Retail Sales vs Consumer Confidence

Adjusted Retail Sales vs Consumer Confidence

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