“September Final GLI places global cycle on border of ‘Slowdown’ phase, characterised by positive but falling Momentum – supportive for risky assets but less so than ‘Expansion’ phase. Momentum slowed modestly to 0.36%mom from August’s revised reading of 0.37%mom. The September reading locates the global industrial cycle back on the border of ‘Slowdown’ territory. We expect activity growth to at least stabilise at current levels, consistent with our forecast for continued global growth improvements towards the end of the year.”
GLI entering Slowdown phase raising downside risk in relative performance of cyclicals (relative performance of cyclicals still at low levels).