The ten biggest months of capital inflow to the equity market (all equity mutual funds and ETF:s). Seven of the ten largest inflows occurred either in 2000 or 2013.
“Partial shutdown of federal government now looks fairly likely – if shutdown does occur, we would expect it to last a few days – shutdown would have modest macroeconomic effects – if shutdown does occur it will probably reduce appetite to allow debt limit crisis.” (Goldman Sachs)
“Since the financial crisis, portfolio managers have increasingly turned from looking at a company’s fundamentals, to technical analysis, in which one examines a stock’s price momentum against market moves.”
“Little to no volatility premium is priced into options market for debt ceiling debates. S&P 500 put prices are near their lowest level since the financial crisis. Complacency is even more pronounced on stocks with high government exposure. Fear priced into options on these stocks dropped over the past few months to new lows vs. SPX options.” (Goldman Sachs)